Last updated on 07/19/2018
Turlington, M. W., de Neufville, R., & Garcia, M. (2017). Flexible Design of Water Infrastructure Systems. In Water Diplomacy in Action: Contingent Approaches to Managing Complex Water Problems (1st ed., Vol. Anthem Water Diplomacy Series, pp. 51-74) . Anthem Press.
The future is uncertain. Technologies, needs, policies, economies, and environments change frequently. Some changes are quantifiable, and we attempt to make best estimates of what will happen, but we will always encounter game-changing events and unanticipated new technologies.
When decision-makers consider needs for future water infrastructure, they often use a conventional, deterministic approach. They assume that current conditions will not change and that we can safely rely on a forecast of long-term requirements. However, the water supply and demand system is complex. Natural, societal, and political forces interact to drive changes in both supply and demand over time. Our ability...